Britain has a new deficit forecast. The IMF's later figure was usually higher.

On 28 October the UK's official forecaster put government borrowing this year at 4.2% of GDP. The IMF gives its first figure for 2026 in April.

Historical sample: 4 of 5.

Current example: 2026 (not part of the historical sample).

4 of 5Four of five times, the IMF's first figure showed a bigger deficit than the autumn Budget forecast.

Will the IMF put the UK's 2026 deficit above the OBR's 4.2%?

History4 of 5Hunch82%

UK borrowing is £8.1bn over forecast. Will it still be over on 21 October?

Six of seven times, the last figures before a Budget kept borrowing on the same side of the forecast as a month before, and once not.

History86%Hunch90%

In two of five first sales of a new kind of government debt, the government met the date it had named.

History2 of 5Hunch52%

Two of the last eight times the ten-year average set a ten-year high, it was higher again two months later.

History25%Hunch36%

Three of the last four times borrowing ran above forecast into a fiscal event, the chancellor answered with tax rises.

History3 of 4Hunch71%

Each of the 3 long-gilt spikes before May retraced within about two months, but each peak stood higher than the one before.

History3 of 3