The Office for National Statistics publishes UK inflation for October on 18 November. In September it rose to 3.5%, mostly because of petrol.
4 of 10In four of ten months when a war abroad pushed UK petrol up, the yearly inflation rate rose against the month before. Six times it fell or stayed the same, including all three months of this year's war with Iran.
Will UK inflation for October, out 18 Nov, be above 3.5%?
History4 of 10Hunch57%
In five of seven months when a war abroad pushed petrol up after two rises, UK inflation rose again, and twice it fell.
History71%Hunch89%
Five of the last eight times a Bank governor warned at a rate press conference or a select committee that inflation would rise, the next core CPI print was higher; six of nine on the full record.
History62%Hunch45%
Two of the last eight times inflation turned up after a run without a rise, the next month printed higher again; over the full record since 1989 it is 16 of 38.
History25%Hunch35%
In most modern energy-shock episodes the first retreat held. The exception, 1975, ran to a second wave peaking near 27%.
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