Markets expect a Bank of England rate rise on 5 November. They were usually right.

Investors put the chance of a rise from 3.75% to 4% at 92%. In September three of the Bank's nine rate setters voted for it.

5 of 6Five of six times some members wanted a rise and markets expected one, the Bank raised rates next time; once it waited.

Will the Bank of England raise its rate to 4% or more on 5 November?

History5 of 6Hunch80%

Oil jumps as the Bank of England meets. Past oil shocks mostly left rates alone.

Five of the last eight MPC decisions taken after a 10% oil jump were holds; the three raises all came inside a cycle already running.

History62%Hunch78%

In two of the last four episodes of hawkish MPC dissent the committee hiked within two meetings. In the other two it cut instead.

History2 of 4