US government borrowing costs hit a 2002 high. Will they stay up until 30 October?

The US government paid 5.67% to borrow for 30 years on 7 October, the most since 2002. Home loans now cost 7.40%.

3 of 5In three of five such jumps since 1975, the rate was still above its old high 23 days later, and twice it fell back below.

Will the US pay over 5.28% to borrow for 10 years on 30 Oct?

History3 of 5Hunch49%

US rates rose for the first time in three years. Will the Fed raise in October too?

The Fed has changed direction 11 times since 1994. In 8 of them it moved the same way again at the very next meeting.

History73%Hunch75%

All four of the last four new Fed chairs met an early market test by tightening or standing firm at the next decision, never by easing.

History4 of 4Hunch84%

All but one incoming chair facing price pressure tightened within two meetings. Warsh spent his first on a hold.

History4 of 5