Ukraine war23 Oct

Russia and Ukraine agreed a one-town truce for Oleshky. Most such deals got aid in.

Russia and Ukraine have agreed to stop fighting in the occupied town of Oleshky from 27 October. Aid and an evacuation are planned for 29 October.

6 of 7In six of seven local truces for aid since 2012, aid got into the town or a group of people got out within a week of the named day. In Homs in 2012, nothing moved.

Will aid reach Oleshky or civilians leave it by 5 November?

History6 of 7Hunch82%

Ukraine war13 Sep

Russia hits a train on Boris Johnson's route. UK sanctions or aid usually followed.

Seven of the last eight Russian strikes near Western visitors or Western targets led to new UK sanctions or aid within 14 days.

History88%Hunch72%

Ukraine war13 Sep

Trump blames Ukraine's strikes for $6 diesel. Will he tie US aid to them by 14 Oct?

Kyiv publicly claimed a Russian refinery or oil-site strike within 14 days in two of five such asks since 2022; both were in 2026.

History2 of 5

Ukraine war03 Jul

Russia says it took Kostyantynivka. Past claims came true, some weeks late.

Every stronghold Russia claimed did eventually fall, but the first claim ran days or weeks ahead of the fact.

History0 of 4Hunch58%

Russia and Ukraine agreed a one-town truce for Oleshky. Most such deals got aid in.

Russia hits a train on Boris Johnson's route. UK sanctions or aid usually followed.

Trump blames Ukraine's strikes for $6 diesel. Will he tie US aid to them by 14 Oct?

Russia says it took Kostyantynivka. Past claims came true, some weeks late.

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