Davi Alcolumbre wants a new term as head of Brazil's Senate. The Liberal Party, soon the largest in the Senate, runs Rogério Marinho against him.
9 of 10Nine of ten times the head of Brazil's Senate or Chamber of Deputies who ran again at the start of a new parliament won, and once lost.
Will Davi Alcolumbre be re-elected head of Brazil's Senate on 1 Feb?
History9 of 10Hunch80%
None of eight defeated candidates who fled was home within 65 days; the closest, in Mozambique, came back on day 70 at the earliest.
History0%Hunch2%
Nine of ten times a defeated candidate for president took the result to court, he had still not accepted it when the winner took office, and once he accepted a quick court ruling. Bolsonaro's own party has accepted the result.
History90%Hunch81%
Three of five times a big foreign power openly backed one side in a close final vote, that side won, and twice it lost.
History3 of 5Hunch27%
In four of the five Brazilian first rounds since 2006, the gap between the top two came in smaller than the last polls showed.
History4 of 5Hunch60%