A YouGov poll on 27 October put Reform UK on 20%, behind Labour and the Conservatives. An Ipsos poll two days earlier also had it third.
3 of 4Three of four British opposition leaders were still leading their party 61 days after it fell in the polls. Jo Swinson left after 14 days, when she lost her own seat at the 2019 election.
Is Nigel Farage still Reform UK leader on 31 December 2026?
History3 of 4Hunch79%
Labour leads, and the Conservatives have passed Reform UK for second place in polls by YouGov and Ipsos. Five of nine times a party had just moved into second, it stayed ahead in the next poll, and four times it fell back.
History56%Hunch62%
In one of four British reform cases where no chair was named on the day, a chair came within a month.
History2 of 4Hunch42%
None of nine past prime ministers who took over with a safe majority called an election this early in office.
History0%Hunch4%
Nearly every recent standards case ended with the MP out of the Commons within a year. Reaching a verdict took months.
History4 of 5
Most mid-term handovers ended in coronation. A ballot came only where a rival cleared the nomination threshold.
History2 of 5Hunch24%
Nearly every first defection was followed by another MP within six months. The one exception ran into an election.
History4 of 5