Republican María Elvira Salazar faces Democrat Eliott Rodríguez in Florida's 27th district, in Miami, on 3 November. Both are Cuban American.
9 of 10Of ten House members who broke with their president before a midterm, only one lost more of his lead than Salazar's 21 points in 2024.
Will Republicans win Florida's 27th district seat on 3 November?
Nine of ten times, a president's party kept an open governor's job in a state it had long run, and once it lost.
Three of four times in recent midterm years that the other party's main national group spent at least $1 million in the last week against a member from the president's party, the member kept the seat, and once the member lost.
In all five Maine elections since 1974 where the governor could not run again after two terms in a row, the governor's party lost the job: three times to the other main party, twice to an independent candidate.
Republicans have not won a statewide vote in Minnesota since 2006. In all five midterm races since 2010 where a party out of the presidency defended an open Senate seat against rivals with no statewide win for eight years, it kept the seat.
Four of four times a US senator ran again in a state where the other party had not won a Senate race for over 40 years, the senator got the most votes, and each won more than half.
All nine times from 2013 to 2024 that a party ran a candidate known for remarks against minorities, for a seat it had won by 10 points or more, the party's lead fell. Three of the nine lost.
Four of five times since 2002 when Senate control could depend on a race that might go to a second round, it was named within 15 days.
Six of nine Florida property tax cuts put to voters from 2016 to 2024 reached 60%, and three fell just short.
In all five Georgia Senate races since 1974 where the senator's party was out of power, someone won over half on day one.
In all six US Senate races since 1990 where an independent took on a sitting senator and no Democrat ran, the senator won.
In three of four US maps drawn to win a seat at a midterm, the party that drew it won the seat, and once it lost.
Three of four times someone asked a court to stop a US state making a result official, it was delayed, and the leader won.
In two of five such California races the winner won by more than 18.4 points, and three times by less.
Four of six times a party that held a Senate seat for decades fell behind in the polls, it lost the seat, and twice it kept it.
Three of five big donors gave new money that showed in reports before the vote, and two gave nothing new in time.
Voters backed ID at the polls in six of seven state votes since 2004; once, in Arizona in 2022, they said no.
In two of four open governor races in a year when pay trailed prices, the president's party kept the office.
In four of eight midterm races where a House member ran for an open seat of the president's party, the party kept it.
In six of eight races after a senator died and a party member was appointed, the president's party kept the seat.
In eight of ten midterms since 1942, the president's party lost more than 15 House seats, and twice it lost fewer.
In two of five such campaigns the ad came down, both within four days. In the other three it stayed until the vote.
In four of five races like this since 1918, the senator from the president's party lost the seat; one kept it.
In two of eight Senate races since 2010, a candidate who beat the party leaders' choice in the primary went on to win, and six lost.
In seven of ten open Senate seats like this, the party opposite the president kept the seat, and three times it lost it.