Spain and Slovenia stayed away from Eurovision 2026 over Israel and have until December to decide on 2027. Four of seven countries that boycotted the contest came back the next year, and the three that did not all left over Israel.
History57%Hunch18%
Harry Kane won the Ballon d'Or on 26 October. Four British stars won their sport's top world prize before the BBC vote of the same year: two came first and two finished outside the top three.
History0 of 4Hunch27%
Dictionary.com named 'maxxing' its word of 2026 on 26 October. In one of the last ten years Oxford named a word another dictionary had picked first, and nine times it chose a word of its own.
History10%Hunch16%
Four of five times since 2017 that the forecaster gave its growth figure on an autumn Budget day, the first official number for the year came within 0.3 points of it, and once it was a full point higher.
History4 of 5Hunch61%
Four of five times since 2017 that the forecaster gave its figure on an autumn Budget day, the IMF's first figure for the year showed a bigger deficit, and once it was 0.1 points smaller.
History4 of 5Hunch82%
Nigel Farage's Reform UK has fallen to third in the polls. Three of four times a British opposition party fell in the polls, its leader was still in the job 61 days later, and once the leader left after 14 days.
History3 of 4Hunch79%
Three of four times in recent midterm years that the other party's main national group spent at least $1 million in the last week against a member from the president's party, the member kept the seat, and once the member lost.
History3 of 4Hunch80%
In all five Maine elections since 1974 where the governor could not run again after two terms in a row, the governor's party lost the job: three times to the other main party, twice to an independent candidate.
History5 of 5Hunch44%
Republicans have not won a statewide vote in Minnesota since 2006. In all five midterm races since 2010 where a party out of the presidency defended an open Senate seat against rivals with no statewide win for eight years, it kept the seat.
History5 of 5Hunch94%
Four of four times a US senator ran again in a state where the other party had not won a Senate race for over 40 years, the senator got the most votes, and each won more than half.
History4 of 4Hunch89%
The government has proposed a 2.4% rise for next year. Six of seven times a health union in England set winter strike dates after long talks, the strike began on the first day, and once nurses called it off.
History86%Hunch74%
Pope Leo goes to Uruguay, Argentina and Peru from 6 to 17 November, weeks after lung surgery. Nine of nine times a pope over 70 went on a long trip to three or more countries, he reached every one on the plan.
History100%Hunch86%
The government is doubling the money to £874m. One of seven times a government or mayor in Britain or Ireland promised to end rough sleeping by a date, it said the goal was met on time, and six times it was missed.
History14%Hunch18%
Ana Brnabić has until 27 November to set the date. Four of six times a country had to elect a head of state early, the first round came within 90 days, and twice it came far later.
History67%Hunch64%
All nine times from 2013 to 2024 that a party ran a candidate known for remarks against minorities, for a seat it had won by 10 points or more, the party's lead fell. Three of the nine lost.
History100%Hunch97%
Labour leads, and the Conservatives have passed Reform UK for second place in polls by YouGov and Ipsos. Five of nine times a party had just moved into second, it stayed ahead in the next poll, and four times it fell back.
History56%Hunch62%
Harry Kane won the Ballon d'Or and still plays for England. All five British stars who won their sport's top prize for the first time while still competing were not knighted in the next honours list.
History5 of 5Hunch96%
Palace are 17th in the Premier League. Five of six new coaches whose club tied their future to one game were gone within five weeks, and the sixth after 37 days.
History83%Hunch74%
Seven of nine times since 2000 that a new boss of a big US company gave the first results after a long-serving leader, the shares went down, and twice they went up. Apple reports on 2 November.
History78%Hunch69%
Brazil's central bank has cut its main rate at each of its last five meetings, since March. All five times in a run like this since 1999, it cut again by the same step, but the real never fell like this before those meetings.
History5 of 5Hunch35%
Jakub Seidler, one of seven people who set Czech interest rates, now leans to a rise on 5 November. Eight times a board member said this before a meeting, the vote was split, and the rate rose three times.
History0%Hunch18%
Company insolvencies for October come out on 17 November. In six of seven months since 2022 with a Budget that helped business, they did not jump more than 8% on the month before, and once they rose 38%.
History86%Hunch78%
Reform UK holds 49 of the 62 seats and has named Hayley Coles. Seven of eight times, an English council elected the leader its ruling group named, and once that person pulled out before the vote.
History88%Hunch83%
Nine of ten times a defeated candidate for president took the result to court, he had still not accepted it when the winner took office, and once he accepted a quick court ruling. Bolsonaro's own party has accepted the result.
History90%Hunch81%
Three of five times a parliament voted on legal status for people without papers, one side won by 150 or more, twice by 37 or fewer.
History3 of 5Hunch39%
The UK Budget is on Wednesday 28 October, a day after the government borrowed at its highest five-year rate since 2008. In four of five past Budgets like this, the pound kept its Budget day direction to Friday, and once it turned.
History4 of 5Hunch76%
Two of seven times from 1972 to 1981, a US president extended cheaper food imports before the end date in the act. The other five times the new act came after it, 18 to 84 days later.
History29%Hunch23%
Only once in six such talks since 2018 did a deal come by the date Donald Trump named, with Canada in 2018. Twice his date passed with no deal, and three times he named no date.
History17%Hunch13%
Four of five times since 2002 when Senate control could depend on a race that might go to a second round, it was named within 15 days.
History4 of 5Hunch71%
Six of nine Florida property tax cuts put to voters from 2016 to 2024 reached 60%, and three fell just short.
History100%Hunch87%
In all five Georgia Senate races since 1974 where the senator's party was out of power, someone won over half on day one.
History5 of 5Hunch93%
Six of seven times since 2015, a UK Budget left out a year for its defence goal, and once it gave one.
History86%Hunch90%
One of four such visits led to a meeting with Donald Trump within eight weeks, and three did not.
History1 of 4Hunch22%
In four of six final rounds where a first-term mayor faced a city council member, the mayor lost, and twice the mayor won.
History67%Hunch69%
In all six US Senate races since 1990 where an independent took on a sitting senator and no Democrat ran, the senator won.
History100%Hunch78%
Four of six times, Britain's top court took more than 47 days to rule on a security appeal like this, and twice it was faster.
History67%Hunch68%
In three of four US maps drawn to win a seat at a midterm, the party that drew it won the seat, and once it lost.
History3 of 4Hunch33%
Lloyds, HSBC, NatWest and Santander report results next week, Nationwide on 19 November. In three of nine past job cuts linked to new technology a rival followed, always from abroad, and six times none did.
History0%Hunch2%
In all seven quarters since 2003 when a war pushed up oil prices, the first US growth figure was 2% a year or less. This time an Atlanta Federal Reserve model expects 3.5%.
History100%Hunch20%
Six of seven bills to move public TV and radio from a fee to state money started on time, and once a president blocked one.
History86%Hunch76%
Three of four times someone asked a court to stop a US state making a result official, it was delayed, and the leader won.
History3 of 4Hunch45%
All six opposition leaders jailed before trial in Latin America since 2014 were still in jail 38 days later, and five got out later.
History100%Hunch97%
Three of ten times, ministers replied to a report by MPs on time, and the other seven replies were late, missing or not exactly dated.
History30%Hunch30%
Six of seven times sides at war agreed a local truce for aid, aid got in or people left within a week, and once nothing moved.
History86%Hunch82%
Three of ten times, ministers replied to a report by MPs on time, and the other seven replies were late, missing or not exactly dated.
History30%Hunch30%
Russia's central bank cut its rate ten times to 14%, then kept it in September and October. Eight of ten times after a pause like this, it kept the rate at the next meeting, and twice it cut by half a point.
History80%Hunch83%
Matthew Pennycook turned down the council's wish to remove one site. In 2025 and 2026 he gave such orders to eight councils, and all eight did what he asked in time, most on the last day.
History100%Hunch97%
A jury found him guilty of nine counts of fraud and four of tax evasion. In three of seven past sentences of councillors in England and Wales for cheating public money, the court sent them straight to prison.
History43%Hunch79%
Carrick got the job for good in May after a spell in temporary charge. Of ten past coaches given the job for good after such a spell at a top European club, six were sacked during the next season.
History29%Hunch39%
Seven of eight such UN nature summits closed by the day after their last planned day, and one finished four months later.
History86%Hunch70%
In five of six buyout offers for German companies at 40% or more above the old price, the buyer got its minimum first time.
History83%Hunch81%
In five of seven EU summits where a name for a partner's status was proposed first, the joint text used it word for word.
History71%Hunch31%
FIFA wants to pick a winner by the end of the year, and streaming services such as Netflix are looking. In five of nine past sales of rights to big tournaments, the channel that had them lost them.
History56%Hunch67%
Twice in nine times, Italy's parliament made such a decree law with four days to spare, and seven times it took 59 or 60 days.
History22%Hunch18%
In three of seven record first share sales in India, the shares ended day one above the sale price, and four ended below.
History43%Hunch49%
In four of four US sales of companies under sanctions, each licence was replaced or the sale approved before it ran out.
History4 of 4Hunch98%
One of eight national maternity plans in the UK backed fewer hospital units, and seven did not.
History12%Hunch17%
Platforms changed the text or plan after protest in eight of ten past fights over new terms. Of five that, like Meta now, went six days without fully backing down, two did so later, both on day eight.
History2 of 5Hunch36%
In seven of nine reports after a scare over AI spending since 2024, Microsoft forecast more spending for the next quarter. Twice it said spending would hold level or dip.
History78%Hunch44%
Four of six times a Korean government said it would restart a stopped step at the border, it began, and twice it did not.
History67%Hunch75%
Six of nine times, Poland's president did not sign a law he had promised not to sign, and three times he signed it.
History67%Hunch88%
In one of four US court orders to question a party under oath by a set day, the questioning went ahead on time.
History1 of 4Hunch19%
Four of five times after a first move like this, Turkey's central bank moved the same way at the next meeting, and once it waited.
History4 of 5Hunch78%
In four of ten months when a war abroad pushed UK petrol up, yearly inflation rose, and in six it did not.
History40%Hunch57%
Under party rules only David Chadwick, its one MP in Wales, can stand for now. In two of the last four leadership races the party had more than one candidate and members voted.
History2 of 4Hunch17%
The film took $15m in its first US weekend and came second. One of nine past documentaries that were hits abroad opened in the UK top three, and the other eight came ninth or lower.
History11%Hunch23%
In two of five such California races the winner won by more than 18.4 points, and three times by less.
History2 of 5Hunch70%
In four of eight past waves of riots, France declared a state of emergency, and in the other four it did not.
History1 of 5Hunch15%
In six of seven Israeli election rounds since 2003 the prime minister was still in office 58 days later, and in 2022 he was not.
History86%Hunch87%
In one of six times the US eased sanctions to keep a rival talking, the rival gave a new step within a month.
History17%Hunch20%
In none of four pauses promised until an election did the two sides sign a deal within a month of the vote.
History0 of 4Hunch8%
Seven of nine times a government cut fuel tax until a set date, it kept a cut going after it, and twice it let the cut end.
History78%Hunch68%
Four of four times a government asked parliament for a law to give back a permit a court had cancelled, parliament passed it.
History4 of 4Hunch79%
In five UK and EU deals since 2022, cod limits were cut two times in five: the one limit in 2022, one of two in 2023 and 2026.
History2 of 5Hunch42%
Four times a UK minister asked a public body for an urgent document, none came within 25 days and three came later.
History0 of 4Hunch1%
In five of nine three-team one-day series hosted by a team that had won its last two home series, the host won most of its group games against the visitors, and four times it did not.
History50%Hunch51%
The season ends in Dubai on 15 November. In six of eight past seasons a first-time leader with three events left won it, and twice a rival passed him at the final event.
History75%Hunch72%
The ban is part of the EU's AI Act. When a new ban on a kind of online service began in the past, three of five times a regulator opened an investigation within six months, and twice none did.
History3 of 5Hunch63%
In none of six US pauses of sanctions required by law did the government bring any in by the first end date.
History0%Hunch7%
Four of nine times MSCI planned in writing to move a market down, it did so on time. Twice it was late, three times it stepped back.
History44%Hunch48%
Canada beat England in Toronto and play them again in Ottawa six days later. In all four women's rugby series since 2012 where a team lost and played the same side away within a week, the winners won again.
History4 of 4Hunch45%
Milwaukee start the final at home after eight days of rest. Since 1969, six teams reached the final the same way, unbeaten and rested with home games first, and two of them won the title.
History33%Hunch44%
Two of four times the UK delayed its reply to the climate watchdog, a new climate plan came the same day, and twice it did not.
History2 of 4Hunch40%
One of four times EPA finished delaying its own chemical ban before the next date, and three times it finished late.
History1 of 4Hunch31%
Only one of ten EU texts on sudden mass arrivals let countries limit asylum claims, and countries never voted on it.
History10%Hunch18%
Some FIFA council members want the peace prize scrapped, and others want politics taken out of it. In eight of nine past rows over a prize, the board in charge changed it in some way, and only once did it scrap it for good.
History89%Hunch73%
Josh Kushner and Bob Iger agreed to buy the Los Angeles Lakers on 12 August. NBA owners approved all ten recent team sales, but two of the three with a known deal day took longer than 110 days.
History100%Hunch75%
The EU put ChatGPT under its strictest online rules on 31 August. Two of seven services that got this status after the first round got a formal question within four months, and five did not.
History29%Hunch17%
Three of nine times the SEC finished a plan on shareholder votes within 287 days, and six times it took longer or dropped it.
History33%Hunch49%
Babydoll is number two behind Patient Zero, in its third week at the top. In two of nine past races between a viral song at number two and a star's new hit, the viral song took the top spot.
History22%Hunch12%
Britain's competition regulator plans a special status for Microsoft that lets it set rules later. All eight earlier final decisions of this kind in the UK and Germany gave the status, and none brought rules on the same day.
History100%Hunch95%
From 6 November it is a crime in England and Wales to have or publish porn showing choking or incest. In four of five past bans on a kind of online content, a big site changed its service within two weeks.
History4 of 5Hunch68%
Three of five times EU leaders put off money for a country in need, the next summit named a sum and a source, and twice it did not.
History3 of 5Hunch62%
In all six years since 2020, ministers took the Low Pay Commission's advice on minimum pay in full, with no rate changed.
History100%Hunch92%
In five of six decisions on these rules, Ofgem did what it had proposed, and once it changed course after objections.
History83%Hunch87%
Six of seven times, the last figures before a Budget kept borrowing on the same side of the forecast as a month before, and once not.
History86%Hunch90%
In seven of nine releases that started just under a million, the count moved by less than 19,000, and twice it rose by more.
History78%Hunch72%
The bill makes platforms, from social media to chatbots, responsible for keeping users safe, with fines above $100m. Four of six times a late Australian bill got a short Senate review, it passed before the year ended.
History67%Hunch71%
One of six times Australia's Senate passed a savings bill it had thrown out, by the end of that year, and five times it did not.
History17%Hunch24%
Four of four times a G20 host whose finance ministers could not agree a joint text still got a leaders' declaration at the summit.
History4 of 4Hunch78%
Gloucestershire's hospital trust plans to restart home births before Christmas. It has no date yet to reopen its Cheltenham birth centre.
History12%Hunch22%
Inter Miami, the MLS champions, changed coach in August after five games without a win. Five of seven champions who changed coach during a bad run went out in their first knockout round, all in European two-leg rounds.
History71%Hunch56%
Northern Ireland has no budget this year, so its hospital doctors have not had their pay rise. Nine of ten times doctors set a repeat strike date, the strike went ahead, and once a late offer stopped it.
History90%Hunch84%
Six of seven times Ofwat gave its final word on water penalties within 49 days of the draft, and once it took 72 days.
History100%Hunch77%
At least 23 data centre projects wait for planning decisions in Scotland. Three of ten times the Scottish government named a date for a planning plan or guidance, it was on time, and seven times it was late.
History33%Hunch36%
Ministers sent inspectors into Tees Valley Combined Authority, the body led by mayor Ben Houchen. Six of ten times ministers kept the first deadline of such an inspection, and four times they extended it.
History30%Hunch56%
Four of six times a party that held a Senate seat for decades fell behind in the polls, it lost the seat, and twice it kept it.
History4 of 5Hunch64%
Eight of ten times both early months of a quarter grew, the first quarterly figure was 0.4% or more, and twice it was lower.
History80%Hunch90%
One of four times a Spanish ban covered a big match, the player got to play it, and three times he missed the game.
History1 of 4Hunch18%
Two of four times a US court ruled on questioning a president under oath, it set a date, and twice it gave none.
History2 of 4Hunch25%
Five of seven times peers debated a plan to take away jury trials, they let it pass, and twice they voted it down.
History71%Hunch66%
14th, Ava DuVernay's film about the 14th Amendment to the US Constitution, leads the Critics Choice Documentary Awards. Two of ten times the film with the most nominations won best documentary, and eight times another film won.
History20%Hunch14%
Five of eight new Spanish parties recorded in the state's poll before the vote won a seat at their first general election.
History62%Hunch41%
Five of seven visiting teams that began their season in Australia with one-day games lost the series, and two won it.
History71%Hunch70%
Eight of nine late EU delays to a law's start became law in time, and once the delay came 24 days late.
History89%Hunch85%
Two of five times EU leaders agreed a long-term budget at the summit named for it, and three times the deal came months later.
History2 of 5Hunch31%
Five of eight times the EU named deals before a summit, they were signed on the day, and three times they were not.
History62%Hunch55%
One of five times a government promised to shield its firms from foreign rules, it came within 79 days, and four times it took longer.
History1 of 5Hunch48%
All seven foreigners in reported Russian spying arrests since 2014 were still in custody when the first court term ended.
History100%Hunch97%
The Unite union paused a strike by air traffic controllers at Leeds Bradford Airport so they can vote on a new pay offer. Four of four times a union at a UK airport did this, the later strike dates did not go ahead.
History4 of 4Hunch80%
An NHS trust stopped births at its Barnstaple hospital on 11 August for lack of staff and missed a 29 September reopening date. Three of five times a birth unit missed one date, it stayed shut at the next, and twice it reopened.
History3 of 5Hunch68%
Six of ten times since 1996, New Zealand named a new cabinet within 20 days of the vote, and four times talks took longer.
History60%Hunch44%
Northern Ireland has no budget for this year, so nurses there have not had a 3.3% pay rise. Three of five times health workers there voted to strike, a strike came within six weeks, and twice it came later or not at all.
History3 of 5Hunch61%
One of six times councils asked for help with debts before a spending plan, the next plan promised a share, and five times it did not.
History17%Hunch11%
All four times a UK ban on selling a product had a start date set in law months ahead, it started on that day.
History4 of 4Hunch97%
Only one of four shops that stopped online sales after a hack had them all back within 26 days.
History1 of 4Hunch41%
Six of six times since 2014, the side a little ahead in a poll a month before an Australian state vote formed the government.
History100%Hunch88%
Nine of ten times the much stronger team went through after playing the first game away, and once it went out.
History90%Hunch92%
Labour's leader in Wales, Ken Skates, says his party will not stop the budget. Five of ten times a party made a budget deal with the Welsh government, it said it would abstain, and five times it made no such statement.
History50%Hunch49%
Three of ten times a first-time year-end number one won the season's final event, and seven times they lost it.
History30%Hunch36%
Three of five big donors gave new money that showed in reports before the vote, and two gave nothing new in time.
History4 of 5Hunch88%
In two of four seasons like this one, the leader was champion by the next race, and in two only at the last race.
History2 of 4Hunch53%
Four of five champions fighting at home kept their titles against a challenger out of the ring for 18 months, and one lost them.
History4 of 5Hunch87%
One of seven Trump appointees hit by such press reports left within three weeks, and six stayed longer.
History14%Hunch32%
None of four companies that set the UK government a deadline paused its project within 80 days, and three later went ahead.
History0 of 4Hunch4%
Three of five makers that stopped sales through a seller after buyers were harmed cut it off the same day, and two paused.
History3 of 5Hunch24%
In three of four times a chancellor dropped a tax rise before a Budget, the next one kept to it, and once the tax rose another way.
History3 of 4Hunch79%
None of nine drivers who won a late race from third to fifth place, while the leader gained too, took the title.
History0%Hunch4%
Three of six times since 1973, rule by the governor in a Pakistani province ended within two months, and three times it lasted longer.
History50%Hunch37%
NHS England's contract with Palantir for its Federated Data Platform reaches the end of its first three years on 15 February 2027. Five of six times a UK government had a right like this, it ended the contract.
History83%Hunch72%
In five of seven months when a war abroad pushed petrol up after two rises, UK inflation rose again, and twice it fell.
History71%Hunch89%
Four of five times a US court briefly stopped government spending, it extended the order or made it longer, and once it let it go.
History4 of 5
Three of four times a sports body got a new chair mid-plan, the plan went ahead, and once it was dropped.
History3 of 4Hunch74%
Green Hill will cover about 1,200 hectares, much of it farmland. The law gives opponents six weeks to go to court. Since 2024, opponents of three of six big solar farms approved by ministers went to court, and three did not.
History50%Hunch44%
School leaders in England say Ofsted's new inspections hurt staff. Four of seven times a union of senior staff threatened action, it called a vote of members within a month. Only once was it within a week.
History57%Hunch40%
IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva said on 7 October that world government debt will soon pass 100% of output. In four of six recent October reports, the fund did not bring that year closer.
History67%Hunch54%
In five of seven years after a summer rise, the IMF kept or raised its UK forecast in October, and twice it cut it.
History71%Hunch56%
In all five meetings where the IMF ministers' text named a war and energy prices, there was no joint text.
History5 of 5Hunch88%
One of four delayed UK reports came out within two months of its due date, and three took four to ten months.
History1 of 4Hunch30%
One of four such German trials reached a verdict within 135 days; two took about five months, and one is still going.
History1 of 4Hunch42%
Horror films in their fourth weekend before Halloween, with new horror films opening, added 10% or more over the next three weekends twelve times out of thirty-one.
History39%Hunch62%
In four of eight times a government eased oil sanctions to cut prices, diesel was cheaper four weeks later, and in four it cost more.
History1 of 4Hunch31%
Directors with an earlier Best Picture nominee have had weak first weekends before. One of six such films still got a Best Picture nomination: Steven Spielberg's West Side Story.
History17%Hunch13%
On five days since 2000 the Assembly voted to exclude ministers, and none of the votes passed.
History0 of 5Hunch1%
The Valkyries have home advantage and beat the Dream in every game this season. In five of seven NBA finals with a team in that spot, it won the title, and twice it lost after leading the series.
History71%Hunch60%
In one of six such appeals the sports court gave a team back what it won on the pitch, and five times the penalty stayed.
History17%
Eight of ten times after such a warning, Canada’s central bank kept its rate at the next meeting, and twice it raised it.
History80%Hunch86%
Voters backed ID at the polls in six of seven state votes since 2004; once, in Arizona in 2022, they said no.
History86%Hunch42%
The second series of The Celebrity Traitors on the BBC ends in late October. In all five past series of the game with a famous cast, a Traitor reached the final, and Traitors won the prize three times.
History5 of 5Hunch88%
In three of five such firings the member stayed out, and twice the Supreme Court ruled the firing unlawful.
History3 of 5
In none of six such decisions did a Budget bring the date forward, though three times a separate decision did.
History0%Hunch12%
In none of four such fights did a higher court pause the ruling within 25 days; three pauses took 45 days or more.
History0 of 4Hunch8%
Every year since 2019 the Recording Academy has brought in a big group of new voters. In three of six years women's share of the top nominations then went up, and in three it did not.
History50%Hunch54%
The game has been delayed twice. Four of six delayed games and films came out on time after their makers backed the date weeks before, and twice the date moved again.
History67%Hunch90%
Eight of eight times since 2015, MPs on the committee passed the Home Office's own changes before their last meeting.
History100%Hunch93%
Three of seven times, a ruling for Indonesian citizens against their government stood; three times a higher court overturned it.
History43%
In all four votes since 2006, the island’s parliament chose the more experienced candidate as Chief Minister.
History4 of 4Hunch62%
Three of five teams with two stars that added another in one summer finished first in their conference.
History3 of 5Hunch40%
Four of six times lawmakers limited these clauses with a pay level or time limit, and twice they banned them outright.
History67%Hunch70%
In five of ten such tram strikes the first day went ahead, and five times it was called off before it began.
History50%Hunch60%
Six of thirteen clubs bottom without a win after five games went down, and seven stayed up.
History46%Hunch34%
In three of five such court fights a judge stopped the government two days after the hearing, and twice it took months.
History3 of 5Hunch57%
In two of four open governor races in a year when pay trailed prices, the president's party kept the office.
History2 of 4Hunch71%
While a war kept energy prices high, the IMF cut this year's world forecast in four of six reports, kept it once and raised it once.
History67%Hunch49%
In four of eight midterm races where a House member ran for an open seat of the president's party, the party kept it.
History50%Hunch53%
Nine of the last ten years, every winner worked in the US; in 2025 one of the three worked in France and Britain.
History90%Hunch84%
In six of eight races after a senator died and a party member was appointed, the president's party kept the seat.
History75%Hunch80%
Four times a blocking country gave way, and the EU opened the talks each time, but only once within a month.
History2 of 4Hunch74%
In three of five such jumps since 1975, the rate was still above its old high 23 days later, and twice it fell back below.
History3 of 5Hunch49%
In three of four such UK plans, the office dropped or paused it before the start date, and once it went ahead.
History3 of 4Hunch42%
Six of eight such UK deals finished by the date the buyer first named; two finished late, and none was called off.
History75%Hunch78%
Five of five times the government kept its early release plan for the first six weeks; three of them had set waves and kept every date.
History5 of 5Hunch90%
In six of seven such first rises, a second rise came at the next meeting; once the bank waited nine months.
History86%Hunch80%
Of five such requests since 2006, ministers agreed to one, companies withdrew three and one is still waiting for an answer.
History1 of 5Hunch24%
In six of seven early Spanish elections, right-wing parties won fewer than 176 seats, and once they won a majority.
History86%Hunch30%
In five of six London races the party's favourite made the final list; once, in 2023, the party left him off.
History83%Hunch88%
In four of five state votes on a new tax, voters scrapped it, and once they kept it.
History4 of 5Hunch20%
In eight of ten midterms since 1942, the president's party lost more than 15 House seats, and twice it lost fewer.
History80%Hunch68%
In two of five such campaigns the ad came down, both within four days. In the other three it stayed until the vote.
History2 of 5Hunch8%
In none of five court fights since 2017 did a top court stop a mass removal of voters while it was under way.
History0 of 5Hunch4%
In four of six resignations under pressure in Iran, parliament approved a new minister within three months.
History67%Hunch63%
In four of four Irish public pay strikes, the second strike day went ahead; talks came 7 to 13 days after the first.
History4 of 4Hunch84%
Only one of six countries whose consulate was closed in reply hit back with its own closure or expulsions within 30 days.
History17%Hunch24%
In four of five races like this since 1918, the senator from the president's party lost the seat; one kept it.
History4 of 5Hunch54%
In four of five such fights, a member of Congress who lost this appeal asked a higher court before any trial.
History3 of 3Hunch80%
In two of eight Senate races since 2010, a candidate who beat the party leaders' choice in the primary went on to win, and six lost.
History25%Hunch66%
In seven of ten open Senate seats like this, the party opposite the president kept the seat, and three times it lost it.
History70%Hunch77%
In nine of the ten most recent special midterm elections, the appointed senator from the president's party won.
History90%Hunch48%
In nine of ten such open races since 1922, the president's party kept the governor's job.
History90%Hunch44%
Four of five exiled politicians came home within a month after a court lifted the warrant against them.
History4 of 5Hunch58%
In one of eight such arrests, police charged or cleared an elected politician within 89 days; seven times they had not decided.
History12%Hunch27%
Three of eight times after a failed pick, Romania's parliament backed the next one, and five times that pick withdrew or lost.
History38%Hunch33%
In six of nine close midterm Senates since 1914, the president's party kept control, and three times it lost it.
History67%Hunch40%
All four leaders pushed out by term limits since 2008 got the post they wanted from parliament.
History4 of 4Hunch21%
In eight of nine such elections since 1942, a long-serving governor from the president's party won again.
History89%Hunch73%
In three of four such tries, a two-time champion that skipped the first round won its first series.
History2 of 4Hunch22%
In six of eight Nations League groups in 2024, the team top with two games left finished first.
History75%Hunch69%
In none of eight walkouts was the star in the team for the very next games; four returned only under a new coach.
History0%Hunch14%
Two of four times a failing contractor faced a dated review, the government ended or did not renew the deal within eight weeks.
History2 of 4Hunch53%
In two of five first sales of a new kind of government debt, the government met the date it had named.
History2 of 5Hunch52%
Six of seven times lenders raised prices before an expected Bank rise, five-year fixed rates were higher after the meeting.
History86%Hunch78%
Two of four governments whose ally already taxed Chinese cars announced their own tariffs within about three months.
History2 of 4Hunch20%
In four of six US decisions to release emergency oil during a crisis abroad, petrol cost more four weeks later.
History67%Hunch30%
Hackers used the Asos app to threaten a data leak on 6 October. In all six past public threats like this, made before the company admitted anything, it confirmed the theft within a week.
History50%Hunch47%
The government took the final say on BT buying TalkTalk, and the competition watchdog reports by 19 October. In three of eight past deals like this, the minister approved without a longer inquiry within four weeks.
History38%Hunch56%
Artificial was dropped by Amazon MGM and picked up by Neon, which opens it on Christmas Day. Five of six past festival films about famous living people opened in a few cinemas first and went wide later.
History83%Hunch70%
In all eight strike votes at UK airlines and airports since 2018, workers backed a strike.
History100%Hunch92%
In three of four cases where a judge stopped a government building project, the government asked a higher court to lift the ban.
History3 of 4Hunch45%
Three of five times a big foreign power openly backed one side in a close final vote, that side won, and twice it lost.
History3 of 5Hunch27%
In seven of eight cases where a party's main fund rushed late money into a seat it had kept for years, the party kept the seat.
History88%Hunch78%
In one of four similar cases the budget passed before the year's end, and twice the government fell during the budget.
History1 of 4Hunch30%
Twice in four similar Senate races, party money came back after being pulled, and all four candidates still lost.
History2 of 4Hunch30%
In six of eight past Budgets with pump prices near a record, the Treasury put off, cut or split a planned fuel duty rise.
History75%Hunch80%
Seven members of Congress fell ill after saying they would retire, and none of them left office early.
History0%Hunch2%
Five of six times some members wanted a rise and markets expected one, the Bank raised rates next time; once it waited.
History83%Hunch80%
Two of four times rich countries released emergency oil together, UK diesel was cheaper three weeks later, and twice it cost more.
History2 of 4
In none of four past Budgets did the Treasury raise the tax on the part of an industry that had warned of closures.
History0 of 4Hunch40%
In seven of nine World Cup years a player from the champion team won the Ballon d'Or. Both misses went to the beaten finalist.
History78%Hunch55%
Of 31 bills the US Senate passed this way before an election, eight became law in time, all in a session after the vote.
History26%Hunch31%
In two of four similar European cases, a new or acting head of referees was named within eight days of the arrests.
History2 of 4Hunch64%
In four of five past slumps in goods that take years to make, more than one firm failed. The second came months after the first.
History25%Hunch22%
SpaceX has not given a date for the next Starship flight. In six past test flights that went partly wrong, the next flight came 63 to 84 days later in four of them.
History67%Hunch72%
The Guardian's art critic wants Kira Freije to win. Tanoa Sasraku is the most tipped. In eight similar years, the critic's pick won three times, and so did the most tipped.
History38%Hunch26%
In one of four British reform cases where no chair was named on the day, a chair came within a month.
History1 of 4Hunch18%
In one of four past cases the country making the threat took its named step within a month. Malaysia took 63 days.
History1 of 4Hunch12%
In eight similar Canadian elections the party leading the last polls formed the government each time, and won a majority in six.
History100%Hunch84%
Last year's winners back as favourite with the same team won four of nine times. Three finished fourth or lower.
History44%Hunch40%
Five of six British teams this far ahead went through. The one exit was Wales men, on penalties in 2026.
History83%Hunch76%
In seven of eight past cases, a court order freezing land for a big state-backed project still stood 19 days later.
History25%Hunch12%
In four of six past US offers to lend oil from its emergency reserve, companies took more than half. In June they took almost none.
History67%Hunch35%
In two of ten fights for an investment trust board, the activist got seats: once by a vote, once by a deal.
History20%Hunch15%
In none of ten cases where a water or energy company got its biggest penalty yet did a regulator punish it again within 30 days.
History0%Hunch18%
In five of six similar votes where polls favoured staying, staying won. The exception was Catalonia, where many stay voters kept away.
History83%Hunch88%
In five of six cases, a new leader brought a delayed reform to parliament by the date they set. The sixth came a day late.
History83%Hunch76%
In four of seven similar cases, parliament approved the decree. Every decree Junts opposed since going into opposition fell.
History57%Hunch12%
Six of nine times a bank kept rates the same after saying they might be high enough, and three times it raised them.
History67%Hunch60%
In two of five cases where a company's largest shareholder backed a buyer the board had refused, the board then recommended the offer.
History2 of 5Hunch45%
In one of six years when someone pressed the Nobel committee openly, the prize went to the side that pressed.
History17%Hunch7%
In all four similar British takeovers, shareholders backed the deal once the rival bidder had dropped out.
History1 of 4Hunch6%
In all five similar rollbacks, opponents who had promised to sue were in court by the day after the rule came out.
History5 of 5Hunch84%
Leaked files name owners of offshore casinos that sponsor English football clubs. In 2 of 6 past leaks like this, the government or lawmakers who could act made a formal promise within 10 weeks. Laws took 5 to 37 months.
History33%Hunch42%
Universal's animated film Forgotten Island opened fifth in the US with $13m against an $80m budget. In four of six similar films, takings fell by less than 40% in the second weekend.
History83%Hunch68%
David Hockney died in June, and the first painting from his dog series to reach auction is sold at Christie's on 14 October. In five of ten similar sales, the price beat the top estimate.
History50%Hunch56%
In two of seven similar disputes, the employer ruled out some or all forced job cuts within three months of the first strike.
History29%Hunch24%
In four of five past cases where a buyer asked an exporter to send less under a named threat, a limit came within 89 days.
History4 of 5Hunch80%
In five of six similar cases, the Supreme Court's first step was to ask the government for advice.
History83%Hunch83%
In three of eight German states where a party came first without a majority, its candidate became head of government.
History38%Hunch38%
One of five Swiss votes since 2012 on plans to limit the government's hand abroad passed: the 2014 immigration quotas.
History1 of 5Hunch20%
One of seven races kept on the calendar after war or unrest in the region went ahead on its date and at its track.
History14%Hunch14%
In three of five such cases, the club found guilty appealed against the ruling.
History3 of 5Hunch60%
Three of eight sides that had waited over 20 years for a title, and lost a final on the way, won their next final.
History38%Hunch38%
In two of four past cases where a plane maker found a fault while its yearly target stood, it cut the target.
History2 of 4Hunch49%
In three of five big US share sales with strong reported demand, the price was set above the first range.
History3 of 5Hunch60%
In seven of nine such warnings since 2010, the broadcaster later named a channel or service it would cut.
History56%Hunch56%
None of Bulgaria's seven presidential elections since 1992 ended in the first round.
History57%Hunch30%
In five of Israel's last ten elections, the leader of the biggest party headed a new government within 60 days of the vote.
History50%Hunch35%
In five of seven similar Italian decrees since 2007, the president signed within a week of the cabinet vote.
History71%Hunch75%
None of nine past prime ministers who took over with a safe majority called an election this early in office.
History0%Hunch4%
In six of nine races where the favourite ran at world record pace from the start, the record fell.
History67%Hunch45%
Five of eight big heavyweight fights paid for by Saudi money since 2019 went ahead on the date and at the place announced.
History62%Hunch58%
In four of five early exits from the ECB's top board, ministers backed a successor within 46 days.
History4 of 5Hunch40%
In six past cases where the US threatened tariffs over a tax like this, two countries dropped it.
History0%Hunch5%
After 6 of 9 US moves to defend an American company, the EU made a new ruling against a US company within 97 days.
History67%Hunch60%
In four of seven British councils that dismissed and rehired staff on new pay, a union struck before the new contracts began.
History57%Hunch45%
In five of seven cases, a group of countries lifted its penalty within five and a half months of a new government taking over.
History71%Hunch80%
In seven similar elections, only one party in power won a majority of seats on its own.
History14%Hunch42%
In eight UK cases where a fund like this ran out early, the next Budget added new money only once.
History25%Hunch30%
In five past UK cases where sellers had to show their prices, an official review later found lower prices only once.
History1 of 5Hunch30%
In five of seven such visits, the US delayed or softened the penalty it held over the visitor.
History71%Hunch65%
In seven of eight cases where a leader or his government threatened their own industry over a price, a rule or a deal followed.
History88%Hunch57%
None of the eight purchase deals Donald Trump announced before signing was signed within a month; two were signed within 90 days.
History25%Hunch18%
In three of four UN contests since 1991, the leader after the third vote was picked within a month; in all four within 38 days.
History4 of 4Hunch30%
In four of eight UK plant stops blamed on energy costs since 2013, the government announced new energy help within a month.
History75%Hunch60%
In 10 of 10 similar big tech fines by Ireland's data regulator since 2021, the company took the fine to court.
History100%
In 4 of 10 similar UK food firms that shut in administration, part of the firm was sold within 31 days, each time within 15 days.
History40%Hunch37%
In all nine UK teacher work-to-rules since 2012, the action was still in place a month after it began.
History89%Hunch55%
In seven of eight US aviation or shipping restrictions with a named start date since 2018, the rule came into force on that day.
History88%Hunch92%
In six of eight big UK infrastructure breakdowns since 2019, a department or a regulator ordered a new review within a month.
History75%
In two of five similar Spanish cases, the trial opened within 11 months. The two closest took over a year.
History2 of 5Hunch24%
Four of ten US media and telecom deals closed within ten days of settling the antitrust case against them.
History40%Hunch60%
In 5 of the 7 measured cases since 1991, a British plan to cut council numbers reached a formal paper within 101 days.
History71%Hunch64%
In four of the five Brazilian first rounds since 2006, the gap between the top two came in smaller than the last polls showed.
History4 of 5Hunch60%
6 of 11 appeal losses in immigration cases since 2025 reached the Supreme Court within 17 days. The record stops at day 21.
History64%Hunch38%
All seven German state votes since 2023 with a final-poll lead of 3 points or more went to the poll leader.
History100%Hunch80%
Since 1949, 14 state elections cost a chancellor's party 10 points or more mid-term. One chancellor left within 90 days.
History7%Hunch10%
In 2 of the 4 measured cases since 2021, a UK minister named a new punishment out loud and a paper followed inside a month.
History4 of 4Hunch34%
Founders and long chairs left the seat 13 times at S&P 100 firms since 2010. The shares were lower four weeks on five times.
History46%Hunch49%
The Fed has changed direction 11 times since 1994. In 8 of them it moved the same way again at the very next meeting.
History73%Hunch75%
In 3 of 7 cases since January 2025, an order or an appointment followed within 45 days of Donald Trump announcing a new body.
History43%Hunch52%
Two of the last seven offshore field decisions were signed inside 79 days. The other five took 265 days or more.
History29%Hunch33%
Three of the last five Romanian nominees won confidence inside ten days. No vote in the record came later than day nine.
History3 of 5Hunch30%
2 of the last 8 outlets cut off by the US federal executive sued over access. The two suits came on day 10 and day 50.
History25%Hunch45%
Four of the last eight programmes in this position got new money inside 72 days. Counted by decision, it is three of six.
History50%Hunch20%
Teams with baseball's best record won their first playoff series in 5 of the last 8 full seasons, and 2 of the 4 since 2022.
History62%Hunch57%
Three of the last nine antitrust suits against an announced merger were over inside 232 days. The two fastest both settled.
History33%Hunch55%
6 of the last 8 cash promises made with no mechanism got one. Five of the six arrived by day four, the last on day 33.
History75%
Three of the last seven autumn inquiries reported inside 90 days. The other four ran on to late January.
History43%Hunch32%
In 2 of the last 12 US sanctions laws an executive action cited the new law within 30 days of the signature.
History17%Hunch24%
In 5 of the last 11 Gulf arms notifications the Senate held a recorded vote within the 30-day review.
History45%Hunch38%
In 6 of the last 9 Swedish elections that changed the prime minister, the new one took office on day 19 exactly.
History67%Hunch60%
Four of the last eight reports from this committee had the department back in the room within 41 days. Full record: 14 of 28.
History54%Hunch45%
Of the last 6 first UK-US summit talks, 1 ended in a joint statement that day and 2 within a month.
History33%
1 of the last 8 countries hit with US visa bans on officials hit back with its own ban or an expulsion within 31 days.
History71%Hunch78%
One of the last eight great players given a farewell friendly scored in it: Robbie Keane for Ireland in 2016.
History0 of 5Hunch12%
None of the last 7 wage-led pension rises was confirmed within a month. 6 of 7 were confirmed within 90 days.
History86%Hunch84%
Five of the last eight bills backed by both parties and blocked this way passed the Senate within 31 days, six within 90.
History75%Hunch20%
Of the last eight dated promises, one became a proposal within 31 days and six by the end of that year.
History75%Hunch62%
323 of the last 385 government bills reached committee stage within ninety days of their Commons first reading.
History84%Hunch80%
Four of the last seven academy players who forced an exit at 15 to 17 were registered with a new club within a month.
History100%Hunch55%
Five of the last eight central bank decisions taken under pressure to slow bond sales cut the pace, dropped a bucket or ended sales.
History75%Hunch45%
Two of the last eight local revolts against a Home Office asylum site went to court within a month; two sites opened within 90 days.
History25%Hunch22%
Six of the last eight host governments pressed for a waiver, a return or a charge within 30 days. The two that did not were British.
History75%Hunch30%
Seven of the last eight officials named in an admitted refereeing error were left out of the next Premier League round.
History88%
Four of the last eight tariff promises Donald Trump made out loud were signed into an order within 30 days. The Scotch promise took 85.
History50%
One of the last six not-ready signals on an EU border system got a formal new date or derogation from Brussels within 30 days.
History17%
Five of the last six big stadium and festival sales sold out within a month of the announcement; Beyoncé's 2025 London run did not.
History83%Hunch60%
Seven of the last eight Russian strikes near Western visitors or Western targets led to new UK sanctions or aid within 14 days.
History88%Hunch72%
Two of the last six EU-UK talks that were delayed got a firm new date within 31 days.
History33%Hunch35%
Two of three protest series that came back for a second weekend went on to a third with arrests. Knowsley in 2023 did not.
History2 of 3Hunch45%
Four of the last eight ministerial admissions that a target would be missed were followed by a formal rewrite within 60 days.
History50%Hunch35%
Kyiv publicly claimed a Russian refinery or oil-site strike within 14 days in two of five such asks since 2022; both were in 2026.
History2 of 5
Five of the last eight MPC decisions taken after a 10% oil jump were holds; the three raises all came inside a cycle already running.
History62%Hunch78%
Two of six quiet NHS patient-data expansions since 2014 drew an ICO, BMA or Health Committee challenge in 30 days; both were GP data.
History33%Hunch62%
One of seven assisted dying defeats since 1969 was followed within 31 days by a named next bill; the other six went quiet for months.
History14%Hunch30%
None of the 8 big rival donations since 2001 led to a cap on donations within 31 days.
History0%Hunch25%
Four of the last eight US interventions on Northern Ireland drew a reply in the PM's or NI Secretary's own name within seven days.
History50%Hunch45%
Three of the last eight calls by AI chiefs to slow or regulate the industry drew a formal UK response inside 30 days, all in 2023.
History38%Hunch42%
Four of the last six byelections with a party leader on the ballot cleared 40% turnout, and none of them passed 51%.
History67%Hunch48%
Two of the last six Gulf openings to Iran produced an agreement within 30 days; the other four ran on for months or lapsed.
History33%Hunch25%
Five of the last eight public interventions by an MI5 chief were followed within 30 days by a security bill or order in Parliament.
History62%Hunch55%
Seven of the last eight changes at the top of the WTA rankings survived four weeks. Those eight are the full record since 2019.
History88%Hunch76%
In four of the last five state takeovers, new public money followed within a month of the state naming its own board.
History4 of 5Hunch48%
In five of the six loosenings of UK mortgage rules since 2013, approvals rose within three months. This time they fell.
History83%Hunch45%
Three of the last six US diesel record runs cleared 4 per cent within four weeks. All six set a further record in that window.
History50%Hunch60%
None of the last seven lab disclosures of state-linked misuse was followed within 30 days by a change in who may use the model.
History0%Hunch22%
Four of the last six improved offers to a devolved government were accepted inside 30 days; the two that failed were Stormont budgets.
History67%Hunch32%
Eight of the last eight major games hit by heavy weather at their venues moved, rescheduled or abandoned an event within days.
History100%Hunch80%
Six of the last eight regimes that struck an opposition party from a national ballot posted a bigger ruling-party result next.
History75%Hunch50%
Governing parties held two of the last eight seats they defended at a byelection in the first three years of a parliament.
History25%Hunch65%
Four of the last six home secretaries who told police to use existing powers announced new powers or a review inside 30 days.
History67%Hunch62%
In all seven system failures at national air traffic operators since 2014, the chief executive was still in post a month later.
History100%Hunch80%
Two of the last eight UK criminal inquiries into party or campaign funding produced an arrest or interview within 30 days.
History25%Hunch25%
One of the last six Diamond League finals produced a senior world record: two fell in Eugene in 2023, none in the other five years.
History17%Hunch28%
Five of the last eight moves back above $100 unwound inside 30 days; the three that stuck were in 2011 and 2026.
History62%Hunch70%
Five of the last eight times a Bank governor warned at a rate press conference or a select committee that inflation would rise, the next core CPI print was higher; six of nine on the full record.
History62%Hunch45%
Six of the last eight comparable UK car investment pledges drew a public government mark within 30 days; nine of eleven overall.
History75%Hunch25%
One of the last seven first designation rounds widened within 90 days. The US FSOC added a company 73 days after its first two.
History14%Hunch17%
Five of the last eight US import restrictions on an allied economy drew a retaliatory announcement from the target within 30 days.
History62%Hunch58%
One of the last eight insider warnings about catastrophic AI risk was followed within 30 days by a step that restrained a model.
History12%Hunch30%
One of the eight duties a UK minister promised on technology firms with no Bill in hand reached a first reading in three months.
History12%Hunch18%
Four of the last six commissioning rebuilds at UK broadcasters were followed within 90 days by a named commissioner leaving.
History67%Hunch72%
All four English bus franchising phases since 2023 started in the month their authority named.
Two of the last eight times the ten-year average set a ten-year high, it was higher again two months later.
History25%Hunch36%
Defending champions have won five of the last eight NFL kickoff games they played, and 16 of 21 since the game became theirs in 2004.
History62%Hunch60%
Three of eight Duma elections since 1993 gave the largest party 300 seats or more; all three were United Russia.
History38%Hunch80%
Eight of the last eight German state elections with a ten-point final-poll lead ended with that party first.
History100%
Four of the last eight Swedish governments kept the seat count and stayed in office at the election; 2010 and 2018 were the close ones, the last by a single seat.
History50%Hunch40%
One of the last six major champions who made a Grand Slam their first tournament after four or more months out went on to win it; two of the six reached the final.
History17%Hunch45%
One of the last eight defending US Open women's champions kept the title, Sabalenka herself in 2025; the other seven lost by the quarter-finals.
History12%Hunch32%
Four of the seven Gulf attacks since 2019 that landed before an OPEC+ decision were followed by an output increase.
History57%Hunch38%
Five of the last eight GPT versions with a traceable rollout reached free ChatGPT users within 15 days; three stayed behind paid plans.
History62%Hunch45%
Two of the four ministerial claims of a fall in crossings since 2023 were matched by the following thirty days.
Two of the five local levies promised by UK governments since 2007 reached a Bill within twelve months.
Four of the five household energy supply mergers on the CMA record since 2003 cleared at Phase 1.
Four of the last eight CMA merger files started the Phase 1 clock within 56 days of opening; since May 2025 it is 16 of 29.
History50%
Five of the last eight TIFF People's Choice winners had their world premiere in Toronto.
History62%Hunch60%
None of the six English devolution deals published without a mayor since 2015 carried a power to raise money.
History0%Hunch18%
One of the four structural changes to council tax proposed by a Scottish administration since 1999 reached the Parliament.
History1 of 4Hunch35%
Two of the last eight Scottish measures to meet a UK-level constraint came through intact.
History75%Hunch20%
Seven of the last eight Scottish Bills to merge a tier of area bodies passed as introduced; the National Care Service lost its centre.
History88%Hunch30%
Four of the four Scottish fare schemes since 2021 started on the day named; it is the end dates that move.
None of the last eight minority budgets in Cardiff or Edinburgh was agreed before the draft was laid.
History0%Hunch22%
Four of the last six cash injections for the longest waits in Wales and England saw a lower two-year count the next full month.
History67%Hunch60%
In two of the four ECB tightening cycles since 1999 a third rise followed the second within eight weeks.
Three of the last eight films that opened Venice in competition took an official award, each a Volpi Cup for acting; none won the Golden Lion.
History38%Hunch34%
Five of the last seven championship leaders who started a race with an engine or gearbox penalty finished on the podium, and three of them won.
History71%Hunch45%
Seven of the last eight long Hot 100 reigns ended by week 19; the only one to go further was a Christmas song, over seven Decembers.
History12%Hunch55%